Thanks gents, those posts made me reflect on the investment case for a moment and consult a biotech analyst peer.
In response:
After numerous successful phase 2 trials the avg 58% chance of success in phase 3 withstands given they need to show efficacy rather than better than all other treatments. I acknowledge commercials viz coverage by insurers and adoption would obviously be impacted IF what mal85 claimed being "You have to remember that a significant proportion of AML is now cured" was accurate and true (but it isn't).
While I acknowledge survival of younger patients with acute leukemia's have improved somewhat the primary intention of Bisantrene is for older patients (historical trials were mostly older patients and all with r/r AML - no children). Within the adult cohort, contrary to mal85 banner statement assumption, survival rates have not improved a great deal.
Overall, the 5-year survival increased from 15.5% in 1990's to 22.5% in 2010's for those with acute myeloblastic leukemia. I do not envisage the families of the 77.5% who failed to survive would agree that 22.5% survival supports the claim that a "significant proportion" are now being "cured" (in fact, they would probably feel quite offended). Given the vast majority of the improvement was within children, which wasn't included in the historical phase 2 results reported, at this point I tune out as while mal85 point sounded logical and intuitively makes sense on the surface it is based on materially flawed data/assumptions.
I suggest you dyor firebull.
Cheers,
5x8's
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