Originally posted by Orabanda
Apologies for starting a new thread.
However in researching this company with a view to invest tomorrow I note that BD1 published results on ovarian cancer on 9th January this year that look to me to be better than today's published results. These ovarian cancer results are also referred to in today's announcement. However the BD1 share price has remained below 2 cents for virtually all of 2018.
The SP jumped today, but hardly moved based on excellent results that have been out there in the public domain for the past ten months! Can anybody enlighten me on why BD1 was unloved from January to now? And please do not refer to the BIT effect. BD1's January results should have been a reason for SP excitement in their own right.
Because the market is fickle and shareholders are impatient? That's about all the insight i can offer.
January's results saw the share price basically double. Before that BD1 had been trading in a narrow range between .01 and .007 for about six months, ever since their 'bad' test results for the lung cancer study in April 2017 (I say 'bad' because the results were probably not objectively bad, but they were worse than what the initial tests had indicated and the market was not amused so the SP tanked).
Following the Jan announcement there was a huge turnover of shares as stale holders who had held on through the crappy times of 2017 jumped ship.
The followup results from another study in March 2018 saw the price skyrocket to this year's previous high (an intraday high of 0.035 IIRC), but the sugar rush wore off and it traded for a while just down from there around .024 for a bit. Then management decided to do a capital raise at .0015 which was heavily criticized at the time (what CR isn't) and the market punished them by thrashing the share price down to around those levels.
In May 2018 they announced that they were commencing the development of the commercial assay, but by then stale holders who had come looking for quick gains were bored after months of inactivity and they sold into the news. For some reason the news was timed so the shares came out of a TH 40 minutes before market close on a Friday so it closed down and this sentiment festered over the weekend. On Monday it opened well, but then a wave of sellers took over and the SP took a dip again, (although IMHO the news was good de-risking and a step toward commercialization). Fast forward the next few months and any hint of good news was met by a wave of stale holders selling out at the first opportunity, so no gains to be made, culminating in September's ovarian test announcement, which was also good, but again the management made the mistake of explicitly stating that the test was still 2 years until commercialization. This killed a lot of the hype and I'd surmise that a lot of people saw the 2021 bit and decided to just sell out. This resulted in the SP dropping back to .01 - 0.012 for the next month or so.
Those are just my thoughts after following this stock pretty closely for the last 18 months or so. Personally I think the stock was oversold in April 2017 (which is why i tripled my holding in the depression afterwards) but investors were spooked. After that, no trader wants to be caught holding when the next CR is announced so they just keep selling into news.
(20min delay)