Running discussion on SP, page-12074

It would be good if you posted a more balanced view of things.

"NPV of 1.6 Billion" is the total project NPV, AVZ's share is ~$930M.

"Conservative concentrate of 5.8%" although the grade may be conservative (probably a reasonable base case) - the realised price over LOM is not. Most analysts predict a decline in spod price over the coming years. Modelling $920US/tonne over 20 years is overly optimistic.



Take a step back - AVZ is still an exploration company. Having a market cap circa ~$500M (back in the day of 30c SP) is incredibly high given the development stage of the project (SS level). For comparison, look at AJM. They are in production, with a MC of ~$400M. Their DFS for Stage 2 modelled 440,000 tpa spod (6%) (same throughput as AVZ) with a POST-TAX NPV of $834M.

Please tell me, given the maturity of AVZ's project, why investors would value AVZ at such a premium, given the clear risks and uncertainty. To be clear, I am not ramping AJM over AVZ, I am trying to provide a balanced picture on valuation of AVZ.