Good post alaska. For my 2 bobs worth, IMO it was always going to be this way at some point for lithium and AJM/PLS. The market (alike us personally) all move in cycles. Take lithium, it went screaming off into the sunset but when the steam runs out it must swing back, then swing back, then swing back etc The swing momentum and strength relies on so many factors (demand, politics, currencies, world financials etc) so one has to try and forsee when the swing is reaching the end of it’s cycle. It is the same with Altura. Most new miners that have discovered, planned and built a mine go through the same cycles. Discovery and plan goes up, start of mine and commissioning usually swings down (the market now wants more). In our case now the focus shifts on commissioning and debt repayments, down, then if successful $$ received outway debt repayment schedules things start to look rosy again, talks of redource uogrades/expansion etc, the up cycle. When AJM were trading above 40c and about to complete the plant, that would have been a sell for short termers as now we get into the down cycle of a mine (if no other discoveries are made). The takeover speculation kept a lot of interest but then that was squashed, so down a bit more rapidly to keep the cycle. Now we are at a stage (close to or at) that the cycle starts to swing back the other way for lithium and miners as we know the demand is there and we know the assets alike Altura and Pilbara’s are ramping up. We have seen the payback figures and we have seen the interest. So for the longer termers it is a case of seeing through this cycle and ride the next one up, again a decision to be made whether to sell or not comes up. Most long termers have invested here for the next cycle hoping for a higher swing up (Stage 2, debt restructure/some paid back, new offtakes). It’s the timing which is the unknown. In Altura’s case, BOD have a big interest in the company with business experience, of course they are doing what they can for both themselves and the company, we lose - they lose type scenario.
It’s exactly like people, you are happy sometimes, then feeling average, then maybe sad, then back up again you go (generally speaking)....life cycles. Time is the unknown.
You will always have the negative naysayers out there with investing and also your own personal life, especially in the down cycle, why would anyone blatently go out of their way to throw down constant negativity, there is always a reason, in this case disgruntled ex-shareholders, angry ex employees or short sellers trying to emphasise the down cycle. They are the ones that never say anything positive and always clutch on to any negative they can feast on. They are obviously doing this for a reason.
Today I am happy so I’m on my up cycle , watch out EJ as next week I will probably be at the other end lol.
AJM Price at posting:
20.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held