Ann: Presentation-International Mining and Resources Conference, page-15

The answer is pretty simply.  If vanadium prices go that low then the industry itself is no longer viable as AVL is intended to be a low cost producer based on the SS.  It also means vanadium has been substituted for something else in steel strengthening and in regard to battery design in the emerging immovable large storage battery sector as something else has been discovered.

When we move from this Alice in Wonderland scenario it is obvious vanadium prices won’t be falling below US$10 per pound in the foreseeable future, and by that think five to 10 years, meaning no substitutes are envisaged on the horizon.  Also note current vanadium shortage is what is driving vanadium prices north of US$30 per pound, but I suspect as new supply comes on prices will settle but unlikely to anything around the US$10 per pound mark, noting AVL own SS suggests a strong IRR at US$8 per pound in any event. 

Note again, AVL like TMT are going to at the bottom end of the cost curve, so if they die the whole industry dies.  All IMO