ORG - ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED
Macquarie rates ORG as Outperform (1) - Macquarie believes the agreement between APLNG and Arrow provide some minor upside and an enhanced return. Of most significance is the potential for additional volumes from Arrow, as it lowers the medium-term risk of needing to ramp up fields to replace the Bellevue and Kenya production.
Despite softness in the earnings outlook Macquarie observes Origin Energy's cash flow is strong and limited capital expenditure will ensure rapid repayment of debt. Outperform rating maintained. Target is lowered to $9.11 from $9.51.
Target price is $9.11 Current Price is $7.14 Difference: $1.97 If ORG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges). Current consensus price target is $9.16, suggesting upside of 27.7%(ex-dividends)The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 39.00 cents and EPS of 65.80 cents .At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.46%. At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.85. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.0, implying annual growth of 340.3%.Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.2.Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 40.00 cents and EPS of 66.90 cents .At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.60%. At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.67. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.1, implying annual growth of 15.9%.Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.8.
Market Sentiment: 0.4All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
ORG Price at posting:
$7.25 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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