G'day All  -Latest Update -Re Rainfall projected forecasts N.T.-Wet season & 7 day forecast.

All in all with drilling to commence this Tuesday the first week weather wise appears in the bag see ( 7 day forecast below ),

additionally the Bureau of Meteorology- El Niño ALERT outlook indicating a drier than usual start to the northern wet season for the Northern Territory- increases the likelihood of the drilling programs being uninterrupted by rainfall & hence favors completion of the program. 

GLH-salt

The tropical Pacific Ocean continues developing towards El Niño, while in the Indian Ocean, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is underway. The Bureau's ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño ALERT, meaning there is approximately a 70% chance of El Niño occurring in the coming months; about triple the normal likelihood.

Ocean temperature patterns in the Indian Ocean have been at positive IOD levels now for two months. As a result, 2018 will be considered a positive IOD year.

A positive IOD during spring increases the chance of below average rainfall for southern and central Australia, and can reinforce the effects of a developing, or fully formed, El Niño. El Niño effects in Australia over summer include higher fire risk, greater chance of heatwaves, and fewer tropical cyclones.

Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean have warmed to El Niño levels over the past fortnight.

However, atmospheric indicators of El Niño are largely near normal, suggesting that the ocean and atmosphere are not yet reinforcing each other, or 'coupled'.

This reinforcement is critical in any El Niño developing and becoming self-sustaining.

International climate models suggest further warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean is likely, increasing the possibility of coupling occurring in the coming months.

Seven out of eight climate models suggests sea surface temperatures will remain above El Niño thresholds until at least March 2019.

Model outlooks suggest the positive IOD will decay during November. IOD events typically have little influence on Australian climate from December to April.

El Niño ALERT continues—dry start to wet season likely

The Bureau's ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño ALERT, meaning there is approximately a 70% chance of El Niño occurring in the coming months. Temperatures of the tropical Pacific Ocean have exceeded El Niño thresholds for the past fortnight, with models predicting further warming of the ocean is likely. However, ENSO atmospheric indicators (such as the Southern Oscillation Index and cloudiness near the Date Line) are yet to indicate that the ocean and atmosphere have coupled and are reinforcing each other. Coupling is needed to sustain an El Niño event.  

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index dropped slightly in the last week, but has been mostly above the threshold of +0.4 °C during the last 2 months. As a result, 2018 will be classified as a positive IOD year. The majority of models surveyed by the Bureau suggest IOD index values are likely to return to neutral during November.

El Niño and a positive IOD at this time of the year increase the likelihood of a drier than usual start to the northern wet season for Queensland and the Northern Territory.

See the Bureau's current ENSO Wrap-Up for more information.

Barrow Creek Forecast

No warnings for the Northern Territory

Forecast issued at 5:10 am CST on Sunday 11 November 2018.

Forecast for the rest of Sunday

Summary

Max 34

Sunny.

Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sun protection recommended from 8:10 am to 4:20 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 14 [Extreme]

Monday 12 November

Summary

Min 19

Max 38

Sunny.

Chance of any rain: 5% 

Tuesday 13 November

Summary

Min 22

Max 37

Shower or two developing.

Possible rainfall: 0 to 4 mm

Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sun protection recommended from 8:20 am to 4:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

Wednesday 14 November

Summary

Min 23

Max 37

Possible shower or storm.

Possible rainfall: 0 to 6 mm

Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sun protection recommended from 8:20 am to 4:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

Thursday 15 November

Summary

Min 23

Max 36

Partly cloudy.

Chance of any rain: 20% 

Friday 16 November

Summary

Min 24

Max 37

Partly cloudy.

Chance of any rain: 5% 

Saturday 17 November

Summary

Min 24

Max 37

Partly cloudy.

Chance of any rain: 5% 

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