That last bit of point that you made, I think, is absolutely correct even under the best of realistic circumstances. Basically, as far as I understand it, if hypothetically they need 15 million to launch 20 pearls and only launch them in small batches once a year then logic would suggest that they would never ever get even more than 80 pearls up ever, let alone the full 200 pearls. This is because, as far as I know, based on what SAS mentioned of their intention to replace 25 percent of the satellites every year and their design then the pearls could only remain in orbit for around 4 years before needing replacements. Therefore by the time the constellation reaches 80 pearls then SAS would already need to replace the first 20 pearls on its 4th year of launch. There exist would be a rolling capital expenditure to replace stagnating number of satellites that would not make sense whatsoever. So there would need to be a threshold in future capital raising because there is actually a limited time period in which SAS has to launch all 200 pearls if they intend to have 200 pearls up at any given time. Minimum number of pearls that need to be launched per year would need to be in excess of a lot more than 50, in fact that is around minimum 68 pearls and above EVERY YEAR. So assuming what Meir said of cost 750k per pearl then SAS would need 51 million JUST FOR PRODUCTION OF THE PEARLS AND THE LAUNCH per year forever. That 51 million cost didn’t take into account establishing ground network, operational control centre, operational costs, contract fees, etc that would no doubt cost a lot more than the satellites themselves and would need to have been ramping up before full operation. Even after all that, if by miracle, somehow SAS managed to get more than 250 million+ in funding and got 200 pearls up and running, SAS would still need to replace the satellite costing in excess of 51 million each year and still have untested market and commercial viability unsupported by any economic modelling.
So even if somehow SAS manage to get say fundings for 20 pearls or even 30 pearls for an entire year in the upcoming CR then that would make no sense.
In light of so many logics and fundamentals then SAS has in fact reached nowhere in their progress of their constellation despite $26.5 million if not more of shareholder money spent since may 2016...a little over 2 years, $13.5 million a year, with significant proportion of which going into nothing but salaries and performance rights yet 100 million market cap... Just 3 test satellites with unproven technology beyond claim by people with conflict of interests ie. managements, bunch of MoU with whole heap of random speculative companies, empty agreements and hot air......wow...just wow...
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