thinking aloud, page-2

It's a winner alright.

It will be interesting to see how the market reacts to the quarterly tomorrow. I think it's good enough to see a green day. There's not really any bad news in there - they confirm they'll have $350m after repayment of debt, so that clears up any uncertainty about debt levels. They've been producing at a rate of around 5000 bopd, which is probably above what the market has been assuming and there's massive scope for increased production just as soon as some money can be thrown at it by Sinopec.

I didn't see too many negatives in there, given we're all well aware of the production problems.

I wonder what sort of $$$ will need to be thrown at Puffin to get production up to the level that Sinopec want? Ie, how much of that $350m will be left over once they establish good flow rates?

I don't see any massive risk attached to AED now. Clearly there could still be production problems at Puffin, but with the world's best people dealing with it, there's a great chance of success.

I'll hold for the medium term.