Yes, going through the Arrowhead report I think if it were to be reworked for the current deal then they would come up with a NPV for ECT's share of the India project of at least A$175M. By itself that suggests a fair share value of $0.036.
The EV for ECT should also include some sort of component for expected contingent value of the commercial Coldry/Matmor plant, other ECT IP, NPV of contingent RoW IP licensing, contingent value of LV project licensing revenues. I'm conservatively going to say A$20M, A$5M, A$5M and A$5M (these reflect much lower probabilities of success than I actually believe apply). That gives an EV of $255M and a SP of $0.046.
So an ECT FoMO exuberance spike to $0.050 is plausible before the ECTOC expiry date.
GLTAH.
Ann: India Project Update, page-36
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