Ann: India Project Update, page-87

Not much to it beyond what I outlined in post https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/36555643/single@Stalktock,

The mid assumption NPV in the most recent version of the Arrowhead report said ECT's share of the India project was worth A$110M.  The assumption there was that the three partners would contribute and benefit equally.  ECT will now benefit from 50% of the revenues rather than 33.3% so make that A$165M.  I believe the modelling also assumed that ECT would have to repay the Brevet loan for its assumes A$10M capex contribution.  The NPV of avaiding those payments over the life of the plant is probably A$20M but it just took the nominal capital value to bring it up to A$175M.

That's just an estimate of the NPV of the revised financials for the R&D plant - there are other plausible future sources of revenue that need to be included in an EV - I estimated A$20M, A$5, A$5, A$5 for the components mentioned - resulting in what I think is a pretty conservative EV of A$210M.

For any of those divide by a nominal 4,480,000,000 shares on issue (including the escrowed ELF shares, excluding ESIOCs) to get a SP.  Ignore the SPs in the Arrowhead reports as they use the pre-ELF/ESIOA/ESIOA expiry share register size only work from total NPV or EV and use the current resister size.

I think those are quite conservative estimates.

Of course some of the other assumptions in the Arrowhead report may have been overtaken by events and I'd be interested to hear alternative views based on some sort of actual numbers rather than just blanket pessimism or unlimited blue sky.

Arrowhead have been updating their model on the basis, I believe, of the movement in feedstock and output pricing but as far as I can see they have not changed the base model which appears to still be based on their confidential briefings some years back.  It would be very interesting to see revised modelling from them (or someone else) based on the new financial information that has emerged in the last 12 months and anything more that is released in the leadup to financial close.

GLTAH.