Looks like "if" Lionergy not able to take up anymore this quarter, we still have GFL who will happily commit to 8,000 tonnes. Should be little to no problem meeting debt covenant ratio assuming pricing comes in at Mt Marion recent USD 930.80 @ 0.73 AUD/USD. I revised the cost per tonne assuming WORST case scenario based on the chart provided at AUD 550 per tonne.
220,000 tpa x 70% name plate / 4 quarters = 38,500 tonne this quarter produced
AUD 28,800,000 / (AUD 1274 - AUD 550) = 39,779 tonnes required to meet EBITDA Net Debt covenant
39,779 tonnes - 38,500 tonnes = 1,279 tonnes x (AUD 1274 - AUD 550) = AUD 925,996 deficit
AUD 925,996 / AUD 28,800,000 = 3.21526% short on EBITDA
Remember this is worst case scenario projection, only then we have a very very slim chance of potentially be short of EBITDA by 3.2% what I would consider negligible as we are still profitable with a gross margin of 56.82% (AUD 724 / AUD 1274).
Assumptions :
USD 930.80 /dmt on recent Mt Marion pricing
0.73 USD buys 1 AUD
AUD 550 cost per tonne from MD's AGM presentation slide
Thanks.
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