“ Repayments will be met IMO” Opinions are easy facts are a little harsher. They paid AUD 27M in H2 2018. Since then all REO prices have dropped, Next has increased quality and quantity so net impact is still unclear. Lynas generated less cash in Q1 than Q4 ’18 adjusting for JARE payment. Unless you qualify with REO prices rising how are they going to do it? They owe USD 165 M to JARE and MT K combined See section 8 Q1 cash flow report. Between now and June 2020 about 10M in interest will accrue. There are four Halves between now and when it is all due H1 2019, H2, 2019, H1 2020, H2 2020. (165M + 10M) / 4 = USD 43M owed per half. This is possible but unlikely without better REO prices. Q1 cash increase was AUD 23M= USD 16M, REO prices have dropped. So how do they make it? I don’t think paying it all off is all that wise JARE will refinance at reasonable terms especially if combined debt is below USD 100M, I expect it will be close to 50M ~ 75M. Personally I think investing in Lynas with a NEXT 2 program is wiser than putting every last penny in to loan repayment. I am sure they will tell us their plans in the GM. Private financing will also be an option. 10 year bonds totaling USD 100 M at 6% will be real easy for Lynas to make payments on. Depending on REO prices the bounds might be BBB or A rated. Current AAA rated interest rate is just below 4% I think JARE will give a better rate than open market. Some debt is desirable especially when you are growing and have a good return on investment. As long as they Pay USD 10M ~ 20M, each half, which should be easy, they will do just fine. My guess is they might even pay USD 25 ~ 30 M this half. But then (165 M + 10 – 25) /3 = USD 50M. With so few halves left any shortage now adds to the following Qs significantly. The real problems are SHORT TERM REO demand anda shaky WW economy which are much harder to quantify.
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- LYC
- Lynas-Japan...potentially a new stock issue
Lynas-Japan...potentially a new stock issue, page-29
-
- There are more pages in this discussion • 30 more messages in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)
Featured News
Add LYC (ASX) to my watchlist
(20min delay)
|
|||||
Last
$7.72 |
Change
-0.050(0.64%) |
Mkt cap ! $7.216B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$7.75 | $7.75 | $7.59 | $16.17M | 2.104M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 2200 | $7.71 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$7.75 | 5834 | 5 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 2200 | 7.710 |
1 | 7544 | 7.690 |
1 | 7544 | 7.680 |
2 | 28722 | 7.670 |
2 | 14421 | 7.660 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
7.750 | 5834 | 5 |
7.760 | 13410 | 7 |
7.770 | 12269 | 6 |
7.780 | 13658 | 2 |
7.800 | 2194 | 4 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 16/10/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
Featured News
LYC (ASX) Chart |
The Watchlist
JBY
JAMES BAY MINERALS LIMITED
Andrew Dornan, Executive Director
Andrew Dornan
Executive Director
SPONSORED BY The Market Online