Nice find there A! Really nice...
Like the way the original poster funneled the state of play into such a very digestable manner. The conclusion drawn is quite inspiring and definitely deserves better exposure than a gloss over link I reckon'...sooooo...here's my favourite chunk:
"So what does this mean for the deal making season!?
We may expect a significant deal from LTHM soon I believe.
Either Tianqi of SQM will have a "sheet load" of money and will do something with it in the lithium space
Ganfeng seems to have just started as well as POSCO. More to come from both I believe.
CATL in dire need of lithium and cobalt.
Which resources are still available for this?
PLS: phase 1 and phase 2 already done and dusted
AJM: phase 1 and phase 2 also done and dusted
MIN: done and dusted
ORE: done and dusted
GXY: SdV and JB deals to be made. SdV most likely with POSCO but is next to LTHM, that could be interesting. And JB also available!
KDR: done and dusted
TAW: done and dusted
So what else is there? Not much in Australia (SYA maybe?). So Africa? AVZ, BGS, PSC!? Chinese seem to like Africa!
I think the coming months will be interesting! All producers and near producers are spoken for. Mainly the African resources are still "open". Expect some interesting fights with/around GXY. But then it will move to Africa I think unless some new resources pop up in Australia or Canada."
So it's shopping season and the main Xmas wrapped available plays are AVZ, BGS, PSC it would appear!
Current focus is MIN deal and as we've said that is the current benchmark. We've heard much about the quality and and quantity of AVZ.
I also just revisited Obe's deservedly applauded initiating thread post:
https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/36607843/single
and in particular Table 1. which provides the neatest of summaries of the MIN/AVZ matrix I've seen so far.
In my initial post on point I came up with a "happy" number but didn't initially pick up the strip ratio comparison (poor eyesight and tiny smart phone screens...pffft...just worked out I wasn't posting on the running discussion thread...waiting on Samsung foldable phones before upgrading...but might hit spec savers before that siggggh) nor the other points of reference copied and cropped below...AVZ is the top row of figures and MIN the bottom.
View attachment 1374115
So worth a quick calc.;
- On strip ratio....Min 3.o5/AVZ .07 = 4.35 which means that MIN has to remove 4.35 times the amount of waste to get 1 tonne of lesser grade ore than AVZ does. That's a lot of wasted diesel and dynamite huh? But it gets better....first they need remove a lot (> hundred metres) just to get going whereas we're at surface and not sure what the plans are for those mountains of crushed pegamite from the tin mining days! But if MIN has to dig 100m+ down that's like a fifth of the depth of Greenbushes before they even start producing so that doesn't sound like they'll be getting anything out od there for years yeah? Anyone want to enlighten us a little on that point as it's way beyond my pay grade.
Then I'm looking at the contamination side of things with the iron...not too shabby there either MIN 1.92/AVZ .88 = meaning MIN grade has 2.2 times the main no no contaminant that AVZ has. How much extra resource does that eat up in terms of chemical tweaking to reach battery/technical grade hydroxide...
Hmmm?
Ohhhh yeah jurisdiction is an issue...LOL...tell it to Glencore...
Said it early on entering...we havn't even started our run...we're just teasing with a flash of ankle and the MIN deal is like a giant Billborad for AVZ...know why? Because these two posts bring the story together in a way that wasn't previously possible as our Monster was only comparable to Greenbushes in terms of quality (forget size which we kill across the board...let's not kid ourselves into being too humble on that point for purposes of this poast...funny how MIN managed to match us on JORC volume...such a weird coincidence huh???? Shame about every other key attribute though...wonde what happens when the traders over on MIN are done...where they going to run for the next BIG play (really all of the main producers) for the unbelievable upside? So INVESTED holders time to get over the carnage that we've suffered because it's a brand new day and the MMs are loaded. The veil of deceipt that has been woven around the sector is fast unravelling. Let the pip traders play their little games and spin their little spook stories they are an irrelevance now...all of them...all they ever wanted were dirt cheap shares so those of us that have had the fortitude to be accumulating should thank them whilst those that exited in the panic....well...sorry but read the stats and make your moves is best advice...
Time to shine. Tick Tock!
