Prawn man, great post mate! (well done) - everyone should read it twice over.
Also well done squash, RED et. al.
The announcement that I personally keep referring to regarding 'Lewis Ponds' is dated 26th April 2017 (particularly pg 4/5). There is a lot of information there but what I really like is the "footprint" and how these particular type of systems work.
I'd put money on it (which I have lol) that the system continues North down the surface slope and that the resource may in fact double or as at 400/500 deep join, potentially even becoming larger and with higher grades (especially Cu).
Anyway prawn mans calcs. are not bad, that said I think the CAPEX will be a lot lower (maybe even half) and the OPEX going forward minimum - again another money for jam situation ...
Ardea will certainly spin this out and all proceeds will be used to sure up the cash position to ensure that no additional dilution is required for ARL specifically in respect to the Nickel/Cobalt business. It actually makes ARL stronger, more cash in the coffers, albeit it is not required as we are paid for all the way to BFS (+ 6 months if required). Makes us stranger at the downstream negotiation table.
The kicker for us is given general market timing ARL shareholders will be hedged extremely well for varying situations; theoretically you could down the track hedge these shares against each other - or in lamens terms "arbitrage". Sounds silly I know but I'm already planning to take advantage (with minor portions of course).
For them to have stipulated a time-frame they know the resource potential, they understand the current market dynamics, and they will look after their shareholders i.e. "they/us/we"!
The grades of silver are very high and given this type of structure there will be consistency. The current footprint is large : say 150m x 150m x 200m. Do the maths and then even halve the result! It's early days but they'll get some good bang for their buck here.
Regarding the sell-off today, I figure the trade-market was anticipating an announcement about Goongarie/offtake/partner - fortune favours the brave today! (sellers may have 'Wrong Bet!').
Regards, NL.
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