Rare earth prices are going to surge!, page-8

So your response to any one that says something you do not like and does not show their backup is "shut up"   where was this comments to the posts saying 125 to 150M in Q1 revenues.  Prices over $2.50 before close yesterday which were only a few weeks ago?   They all had no supporting data. 

  I agree with Goofy on this one.  We don’t agree often.   ICE autos sales are still the biggest users of PMMs.  Sales are down for 4 months YOY then, up 0.1 % in October.      Yesterday GM announced plant closures, and  a layoff of 13% among workers and 15% of  Sr. staff.   The new CEO ( in office 5 years) of GM is smart.  I really do not think she would have done this if she expected a recovery to last years production levels in 6 to 12 months.   Yes markets were up yesterday.   after an hour they are down to day.  Have been down for many months.   Do you think markets reflect economic expectations on a long term, several months + basis.   If economy slows what happens to manufacturing demand and how does that impact REO demand?     If you want to ignore world events and just stare at Lynas ignoring things that they have no control over   but have a big impact on their performance.  Please do not force that on the rest of us.     Feel free to tell us.   

 I have a question for you.   How do you explain stock price since split when it was 2.33 or after early may when it hit 2.89?

My explanation is that the Q4 report showed the effect of REO prices dropping since March.  That AR showed that profits dropped from 50 M H1 to 4M H2.  Because of poor demand for REO product. That Q1 shows even more weakness.    If falling prices and lost of 300 to 400 tons of NdPr cause Q4 to look bad.  That h1 ’19 has lower profits than H2 ’18 maybe near zero or negative.   What will that do to SP?  What do you attribute these bad events to?    Lynas is doing everything correct, sometimes good investing means looking past the company to see what impact from worldly events will cause. 

 

 Note AL said lost production  would be about 16M.  Forecast 6 months ago were for 250M H1 revenue.  I personally think less than 225M now.  16 / 225 = 7% reduction in revenue.    This is significant but let’s not blame more on it than is justified.