ADA has been smashed. Hard to make sense of a software company trading on an enterprise value to revenue and an enterprise value to recurring revenue ratio of 0.7X and 1.3X respectively. The 2019 EBITDA guidance similarly implies a silly enterprise value to EBITDA ratio of < 5X against enterprise software peers of ~15X. Yes I understand the client concentration issues, with the FAA a $10 million annual revenue and $6 million in recurring revenue client that appears likely to disappear. However the company seems to be guiding for atleast flat 2019 USD revenue, and flat USD recurring revenues (ie increasing AUD revenues) for that year, with this guidance excluding this part of FAA revenues. Investors have completely given up on ADA. This is either a communication issue or ADA is on the cusp of losing mass revenues. I'm hoping on the former!
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