Well, it's probably just some day-trading momentum that's driving it right now. It's a very nervously-held stock. Volumes generally have been pretty low.
Fortress being in there means they have some assets i.e. some property they can easily first-mortgage. I don't know that we can read much more into that. Fortress are there to make money and see their money is safe. We can't take it to mean the Company is safe. No way!
As I have said before the Company is in strife with its funds. Fortress got in to help with much-needed cash. The company may be okay if they turn over their mortgages fast enough to meet the cash redemptions. (They say 80% of mortgages turn over annually - do they mean 80% of funding too?) Right now they need to build a CASH BANK. Turning the cash out again in new mortgages would be a big mistake. The Company must see what is ahead, and plan properly. Unfortunately these companies don't always think ahead, or they misjudge what is happening in the market.
Having the seminars was a good idea. But it's hard to judge the outcome since the money is locked up. Most investors will I am sure pull their money. I don't have great confidence in the management. What I mean is they are okay doing their funds management and property development, but managing the company through a credit crunch is quite different. Have they done it before - NO.
The newsletter and seminars won't change the situation. This is where they could get it wrong. To just continue on would be a mistake. They need to state they are confident they can meet any redemptions that come up in 180 days (in fact in 180 days AFTER the original loan maturity). They also need to say it won't happen again and they have taken steps to ensure that. Not saying that means they have real doubts. They have the $240m bank facility to pay off as well. And Fortress - they stated Fortress have no deal that could affect their botton-line profits - that suggests they might have a deal we should know about. Also CP1, how much is tied up there, and that is not short term.
Let' see what unfolds.
CIY Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held