so you think you centro can dance, page-21

Good news for me means debt extension to at least 30th September and a clear indication that the company is going to survive long term.

We have had plenty of signals:

1. CEO road show when he said, "It's unlikely the company won't get a debt extension" and "The banks are not putting any pressure on us to sell"

2. No fire sale of assets. Significant interest in individual assets. (AFG, ABS, MFS are flogging off assets left, right and centre - I don't see Centro doing this)

3. The company has announced refinancing of all debt apart from "less than $200m" which accounts for LESS THAN 3% of the outstanding debt.

4. New sub holders and significant insto interest in CER.

5. Great CEO, good senior team, strong advisors. All of whom have stuck to the same plan from day 1. No panic, very professional.

6. A general pick-up in the overall environment. The US looks like avoiding a catastrophe and the Aus economy is still very strong.

etc, etc, etc.

The ann is likely to have details of the long-term strategic plan, asset sales, corporate governance, etc. There may be pockets of bad news in these which gain media, analyst or investor attention in the short term.

The overriding question though is will the company survive and based on future earnings is it worth more than the current market cap of $425m?

If you can answer yes to both of these, you really don't need to think much more about your holding.

One final point, it's important to reflect on the whole of the last 4 1/2 months when coming to your own decision, not just the last few days. It is easy for personal opinion to swing towards the current good/bad news story, ASX announcement, previous day market activity or poster opinion.

Think independently, draw your own conclusions and for goodness sake have some conviction in what you are doing.