Kipper
It is more than logical that the gas flare from the individual wells would increase with time as the volume of water declines. The water acts as a cushion and as it is produced to surface, the back pressure on the reservoir would decline to allow great gas volumes. This is normal practice in helping define the commercial volumes.
It is erroneous to see this as a delay, as it is more than difficult to estimate how long the gas flow is needed to reduce the water volumes to zero. When the water diminishes to an acceptable level, near zero, the flow test equipment and personnel can be mobilized to site and the testing via the equipment can commence. it can take time, but ask yourself, what is the rush?? Better to get the right result than to come to an early and incorrect conclusion.
Gas testing will allow for a commitment to installation of flow lines to the Santos facilities and reserve certification. Both of which are major positive milestones.
The commercial risk is reducing as we get lower water volumes and the play gains credibility. The potential upside is significant for patient investors. Those investors looking for a quick fix probably shouldn't be investing in these stocks.
Just MHO
Cheers, AL
