Originally posted by tt2000
The upside to this is very simple.
OPEC cut production tomorrow, oil rallies SEA razzles.
Then we get fed the 30 day IP rates for the wells next week and the booster reignites.
I think the downside of OPEC not cutting is already priced in.
1 trading day until we find out
I so want to agree with the sentiments posted ... and that's part of the problem. When everyone thinks it can only go up from here - it doesn't. If it is so "obvious" then suspect a problem (posters gloating about how much money made (?) ... to the point of getting their Dad in).
OPEC+ needs to cut - we are drowning in supply (of all types - not just oil). I do think they will cut. But there are big (macro) problems out there, not the least of which are interest rates. The bond market isn't wrong all that often (and its signalling recession).
Thankfully the US market gets a breather today for the National Day of Mourning. George H. W. Bush is everything the current holder of the position is not.
Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt lead to many actions. At least as you say one of the "Uncertainties" (OPEC+ cut) gets resolved Dec 6. Still leaves plenty more (macro) downside issues.
On the flip side, SEA SP seemingly punished "out of proportion" IMO. This time their plan appears solid. They SHOULD have a lot of optionality on the drilling schedule if oil price makes that necessary. Like many here I'm still prepared to defend by accumulating more, but I need a wider moat to do so, as the only thing I'm certain of is there is uncertainty.
