Originally posted by pezsaz
I think QBE has a bigger issue in the near term. That is perception and o/s fear of the Australian housing market capitulating. And recession. From memory QBE manages high housing LVR insurance. Could be wrong on that last point. If so, this may retrace to mid 8’s. Plus if there is a recession, there will be a slight increase in premium default. Issue is that QBE is marginal profit already. Finally, investors not as sure about bond yield trend.
I think mickeebee has a good strategy short term on QBE
Cheers
Pez
you'd be spot on mate - ANZ division tried to flick off their massive LMI book a few years ago when I was there. they got caught with their pants down in that attempt when Westpac dulled their numbers. they had insight into this impending housing "capitulation" and changes by the regulator and wanted to hit the exit button, but failed.They looked to spin off or sell, both met with lack luster offers.
LMI was a highly profitable business to QBE, in fact, it contributed to the bulk of the ANZ profitability for decades....lets face it, 20yrs of nothing but housing strength, who would claim? and all those muppets taking out 0% deposits (to 20%) had to take out LMI, so for years it was a cash cow.....but problem now is, those loans still exist, they unwind over 30yrs (P&I) and much longer for interest only (?).....but all the interest only must now convert to P&I, some ppl cant hold, but cant sell due to current housing mkt conditions.....this is when the decades of high profitability come back to haunt QBE. Massive exposure should housing continue to dive, and it will....IMHO...
and
@GC837986 - u hit it spot on. Dick Regan used to get the expense analysts to paint pretty pictures with expenses, none of which were ever valid. big BS to sell to the gullible mkt that the ultra high exp ratio would improve. So much needs to be spent to improve capability that the expense ratio in reality should double, not get 200 pbs better.
Joke.
so much you can squeeze out of a stone, and those stones should actually be tablets and bots - but qbe cant afford them cause Pat et al would rather get paid, to do......oh yeah sell unprofitable portfolios...lol
the beauty is, his performance remuneration is based on ANZ COR (70%), so his back pocket should get hit hard by this too....
(20min delay)