Is GI bleeding a worthwhile treatment indication?, page-5

Khazar10. MSB IR  I was referring to Mesoblast Investor Relations. 

The reason why I suggested this is they can give guidance on potential pricing strategies. For example.Your analysis understandably used Japan to provide an indication on pricing. MSB has previously guided that reimbursement for aGVHD will be about $195,000 per patient and the reimbursements in Japan are at about 60% of expected levels in the US. Secondly we have the dosage requirements which will vary materially between adult and paediatric patients....as evidenced by aGVHD pricing in terms of 2m cells/kg of bodyweight required per administration. 

Thirdly.. If you look at JCR's financial statements , they  recently lowered pricing which has led to materially higher market penetration. This makes like for like comparisons on numbers of patients treated very difficult. The latest sales Temcell sales reported by JCR show sales up from Yen586m to Yen 989m for the 6 months ended 30th September 2018. Amazingly, we are told by Mesoblast in their recent presentation that Temcell sales in the last quarter have risen 66%.

http://www.jcrpharm.co.jp/wp2/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/FY2018-2Q-Financial-Report-Jul.-1-Sep.-30-2018.pdf                                                                                                                                           You can observe from the pricing list provided by bioinformant.com that Temcell pricing is now between $115,000-$170,000. Interestingly they also have Prochymal (Mesoblast in Canada) being priced at $200,000 in line with Company guidance.

https://bioinformant.com/price-of-cell-therapy-products/    Regarding numbers of patients for aGVHD versus assumptions in the Oppenheimer Report .According to the Centre for International Blood and Marrow Research, there are approximately 30,000 allogenic BMT's globally. In the US there are about 8,900 BMT's a year, with 25% of all cases from the paediatric population. Of these patients 50% are expected to develop aGVHD.Currently in the US there are no approved treatments for steroid-refractory aGVHD.

Having laid out the basis for my pricing determinants, I would suggest that following a period of marketing to gain insurance approvals for prospective treatments ...Mesoblast has a target market of

8900/4/2=1112.5 (apologies for the half a child) times a treatment price of an $195,000 

or $217m per annum.

If medical practitioners,decided to used "off label"for the adult market (illegal for MSB to market any product off label ) we are talking a target market for the US alone of close to $1bn .....and no other treatment options ! Interestingly enough , I understand the product in Japan is sold for both paediatric and adult use !!!

I have to go now, but the point I wanted to make is that the veracity of a  good piece of independent analysis provided by Khazar10 will be given greater investor consideration if the Mesoblast management has been able to review and guide you on any anomalies.