According to the Centre for International Blood and Marrow Research, there are approximately 30,000 allogenic BMT's globally. In the US there are about 8,900 BMT's a year, with 25% of all cases from the paediatric population. Of these patients 50% are expected to develop aGVHD.Currently in the US there are no approved treatments for steroid-refractory aGVHD.
Having laid out the basis for my pricing determinants, I would suggest that following a period of marketing to gain insurance approvals for prospective treatments ...Mesoblast has a target market of 8900/4/2=1112.5 (apologies for the half a child) times a treatment price of an $195,000 or $217m per annum.
The company did state in thd FDA meetings announcment that and I quote,
"In North America and EU5 countries, Mesoblast estimates that the addressable market opportunity is in excess of $US700 million per annum"
I take the US$700m as just being the pediatric market for the regions above.
This checks out
30,000 x 25% children x 50% agvhd =3,750 pediatric cases x $195,000= US$731,250,000
If the adult label extension is given then there is potential to add a few thousand more adult cases potentially doubling the revenue per annum to US$1.5B
Correct me if I'm wrong!!!
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