Had notlooked at prices in a couple of days. Nd did drop again. Thisdrop was small 1 RMB / KG so in itself not very important. After a seriesof 3 rises two drops in a row does indicate we may be switching to a downtrend. The price drop from March till august was about 15%. ( March USD 47.5 Sept USD 40.4) We had a very positive series of three risesfor a total of 5 RMB before this. This last two drops totaled only 2 RMB. Not very significant. However they do dash any hopes of therebeing a rally any time in the near future which looked possible just a fewweeks ago. IF all the Malaysian problems are solved thenLynas has to show at least a 10% profit on revenue. If there areexpenses clearing up the residue I am sure market will allow them to call thisa one time item and exclude them At these prices 10 % will not beeasy at todays reo prices, in my opinion. NEXT improvements makes this a hard thing to know for sure.
It is myopinion that a 10% profit would have trouble supporting a $2.00 SP for anestablish company. You can do math PE would be over 20.
Here are somecharts for ASX 200 for PE, yield, dividends look at these charts and decide what a good PE would be for Lynas https://www.marketindex.com.au/statistics. Do not think 2 or 3 years out think about next 12 months. Long term thinking is valid buying or holding years ahead of those things happening when near term , one or two years, looks bad just does not make sense!!!
Just areminder La dropped 2 RMB and Ce 0.75 in November They have had no price rises since March. Volume actually means that CE and La price drops will have more of a negative impact than Nd and Pr to profits in H1 ‘19.
Ignoring short fall from NdPr
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$6.76 |
Change
0.020(0.30%) |
Mkt cap ! $6.318B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$6.70 | $6.82 | $6.68 | $12.37M | 1.829M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 4000 | $6.75 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$6.78 | 7217 | 2 |
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 4000 | 6.750 |
4 | 32873 | 6.740 |
2 | 17715 | 6.730 |
1 | 14224 | 6.720 |
1 | 4477 | 6.700 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
6.780 | 7217 | 2 |
6.790 | 3278 | 2 |
6.800 | 16371 | 2 |
6.810 | 11828 | 2 |
6.820 | 249 | 1 |
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