fertilizer supply tight for next 4 to 6 years, page-27

Looking at the headline of this thread, I still say there's a lot of hot air under the price of MAK, let alone views on the global phosphate market going into the future

Among other things on the thread, here's what I said a few weeks ago ********

There seems to be a lack of knowledge here. The Saudis will be in first production in 2009 and have plans to supply 20% of global needs. Further, it should be understood it is a state funded project where US$6 billion has already been committed to this initiative.

Seeing MAK are probably two years out from first production, and it would appear are blissfully unaware of the near term Saudi participation - at least from what can be gleaned from their March investor presentation, then one might reasonably suggest the price of phosphate could be somewhat distant from what they project it to be in the years ahead. Logically, if a substantial new source for any commodity comes to market, then the supply/ demand equation alters, and it will be reflected by the price

http://www.hotcopper.com.au/post_threadview.asp?fid=1&tid=658691#2789661
.......

However, it seems that information contrary to the mainstream phosphate threads here is unwelcome, and there's no downside risk to MAK in particular. Indeed it is a sure fire way to turn a dollar.

Some would have it that the worlds answer to a food shortage is to feed the earth on steriods(phosphate), and all will be well. Yet there has been no discussion of a few simple realities like, the rising price of steroids precludes its purchase by a fair chunk of the worlds poor people, and the simple fact that water is needed to grow crops, when all one needs do is to look around Australia, let alone most of the world, and see that water, and the availability of arable land is heading south. Logically, no matter how athletic a person is, he/she, cannot live by steroids alone.

As I read it, yes there is a global shortage of phosphate right now, but it will be addressed within a few years. After all, it is not as if the raw ingredients are rare earth, it's just that it has been a neglected industry

I guess its the incessant ramping to the upside that forces posts such as this, where not a whit of the downside is allowed to stay alive - when indeed, there is plenty

Other than the above, MAK seems like okay company, perhaps worthy of investment when they actually have a phosphate business in two or three years time