Key thing is peak oil. Peak oil production was in May 2005. Despite oil rising in price by close to 200% production has not increased, despite increased exploration. Why, because we have passed peak oil we are on the plateau with gradually falling production which will accelerate. More natural gas will be diverted to energy and will subsequently rapidly deplete. Leaving minimal natural gas for use in fertiliser production via Haber process. 1/3 of world crops rely on ammonia fertiliser produced from natural gas . This is not cyclical. More phosphate/potash will come on line but less natural gas will be available for ammonia fertilizer production. I get the feeling that most people just don't get the fact that things have changed, and the world will rapidly change in this post peak oil period. Civil unrest in 3rd world, declining living standards in West, and increased famine throughout the World.
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- fertilizer supply tight for next 4 to 6 years
fertilizer supply tight for next 4 to 6 years, page-34
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