Ann: Expiry of Newmarket Options, page-8

They're only buying 12-16 of these drones which have a unit price of around $14.5m, so I'm not expecting a huge amount of revenue from this contract. Doing some real, real rough back of a napkin type calculations here's what I"m guessing the contract to be worth for QHL:

Cost to manufacture = $2000/lb

Aircraft weight (less engine, avionics and systems) = 4250 lb

Cost per aircraft = $8,500,000

Engines are around $0.5-1m and I'm gonna guess avionics systems on them will be $1m+ easily as well (e.g. those FL/IR balls hanging under the nose (if memory services) can run you up to $250k). You also need to factor in all the other systems (hydraulic, fuel, landing gear, etc) so I'm guessing another $2m here. 

That then gets you up to around $12m per unit in costs which would leave a healthy 17% margin (arguably a bit much). This is my sanity check.

I'm not certain QHL is going to get the entire manufacturing contract - I don't see any other manufacturers on Team Reaper, at least structural - but if they do, I would estimate a $102m (12 a/c) to $136m (16 a/c) contract at best. So actually it isn't that bad when you compare it to what the C-130J flaps are worth. 

Anyway there's my 2c worth to mull over on Reaper and a good way for me to whittle away a Monday afternoon...

References:

order size: https://monch.com/mpg/news/air/4508-air7003.html

unit price: http://dronecenter.bard.edu/drone-spending-the-mq-9-reaper/

aircraft manufacturing costing: https://ocw.mit.edu/courses/aeronautics-and-astronautics/16-885j-aircraft-systems-engineering-fall-2004/lecture-notes/pres_willcox.pdf

the rest: my knowledge as someone who works in aero and has priced up developing a manned ISR aircraft platform