Covered this before, you can interpret "Sentiment" either as a ST trading indicator or one of LT values, totally up to the individual.
Many times I have clarified my attitude that Lynas represents extraordinary LT value with IMO an acceptable risk profile. Clearly "sovereign risk" no longer applies just to investments in Third World jurisdictions, go talk to the Oil & Gas industry, plenty of other examples.
The biggest risk to Lynas was the broader development of the RE industry, specifically NdFeB now responsible for ~70% of revenues and ATM probably close to 100% of earnings.
Precisely why I have closely followed the development of the magnet industry since late 2012, had it remained static the RE industry was toast.
Clearly that is not the case with NdFeB now far more cost effective by several multiples, resulting in a new range of highly efficient PM motors specifically designed to leverage the unique advantages of NdFeB and at the same time compensate the major disadvantage at higher temps.
Most importantly these new PMM designs are now out of the lab and in commercial production and being applied to an incredibly broad range of industries. Few seem to understand the scale & depth of penetration into areas such as elevator motors & rotary A/C where cost efficiencies run from 15% to 70% in the case of elevators employing regenerative braking, feeding energy BACK into the building.
The growth potential NdFeB is staggering, long before you factor BEV, any that have observed China's downstream investments metals > magnets would clearly understand their expectations.
Quite confident Lynas will move thru this current situation, but the solutions & costs are obviously not yet clear, and I'm not alone in that belief.
My Sentiment expresses that long held belief that Lynas represents quite unique LT value with an acceptable risk profile. If you want my ST thoughts I'd need half a dozen indicators for the different accts I'm holding, and I'd probably bore everyone to death, simply sometimes I get it right, sometimes I get it wrong, but the LT Buy based on the thesis above has proved my biggest winner, even @167.
Yet to be proven but based on the development I've observed we sit on the threshold of the Electrification of Everything with the PMM sitting at the core of +50% applications by energy demand. Patiently waiting for mkts to get over their battery fixation and wake to the reality.
Expand
(20min delay)