"Provide a retort that contains facts or disappear"......thanks for the polite request.
From my modelling I was expecting about 30kozs in Q2 with Q3 forecast of 37.5kozs and Q4k of 45kozs. It is only a forecast so was expecting some variance.... but my low level expectation was 25-26kozs.......At 21kozs the years forecast is very unlikely to be met.
Using your reasoning - that you kindly reminded me of - for supporting the Q2 result as meeting expectations, and extrapolating forward on the same basis ,I get Q3 at 30.5kozs and Q4 at 42kozs - when I use very optimistic parameters...So total for the year of 112kozs or about 20% short of forecast. This assumes everything from here going forward goes according to plan, so the shortfall is due entirely to the first 2 qrts......Hence my continued belief that Q2 was a shocker.
I'd be interested in what your expectation for Q2 was prior to the result, what you expected for Q3 and Q4, and how this has now been revised?
....so to coin a phrase...."Provide a retort that contains facts or disappear"
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