housing collapses

House bubble bursts, but whose fault is it?
By Nick Gardner and Andrew Carswell May 12, 2008 07:00am
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HOUSE prices in some parts of Sydney have almost halved as battling borrowers struggle to keep up with increasing interest rates.

Rising interest rates, both from the Reserve Bank and those imposed independently by the banks, have been blamed for tipping the market over the edge and "pricking the house-price bubble".

Property auction clearances remained flat over the weekend too, with rates slipping below 50 per cent in Sydney and Brisbane.

But property researchers have said some people have simply paid too much for their homes and other buyers are refusing to repeat their mistakes.


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The falls - in Sydney's west, the Hills district, and Sutherland Shire - are far steeper than previously thought, and show the devastating effects of the RBA's rate-hiking spree.

In the past six months, 30 homes across Sydney have been sold for at least $100,000 less than was paid at the height of the property boom, many as a result of distressed mortgagee sales.

One property in Bankstown, in the city's southwest, bought for $500,000 in August 2005 sold in February for $215,000. Several other properties in Sydney's west have recently been sold for losses of more than 30 per cent.

Sutherland Shire, in the southern stretches of the city, was thought to have escaped relatively unscathed but is now having prices plummet.

One property in Oyster Bay, bought for $1.09 million in December 2001, sold in March for $680,000, while a Caringbah apartment bought for $339,000 in June 2004 was sold for a loss of $104,000 last October.

The worst affected suburb was Parramatta, on Sydney's western outskirts, with 11 homes sold at a loss in the past six months. Neighbouring Merrylands had 10, while Punchbowl also suffered substantial losses.

The data - complied exclusively for The Daily Telegraph - showed that even the more affluent suburbs are now beginning to suffer. Several homes in Waverley, Coogee and Paddington were sold for losses of more than 25 per cent. The worst hit was the Waverley house bought in July 2003 for $725,000 and sold for $465,000 in March.

And experts predict that the losses will get worse as the year goes on.

Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP Capital, said: "The pain of higher interest rates has only just started to kick in and we will see further falls over the next 6-12 months.

"The Sydney housing market is in a bind - we have a shortage of housing and huge demand but that isn't going to stop prices declining further. I think we'll see prices fall by another 10 per cent this year - and that's without another interest-rate rise.

"If rates rise again it will accelerate the declines, and that's an ominous prospect because price falls can be infectious" Mr Oliver said.

"If one house in a street sells for a lower than expected price, then that can have a knock-on effect to other properties in the same area, and so it goes on."

The latest figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, released last week, showed Sydney house prices falling by 1.5 per cent in the March quarter alone - the worst performance of the eight capital cities.

When the RBA decided to leave the cash rate at a 12-year high of 7.25 per cent last week, it hinted that rates might have to rise later this year if inflation kept rising, which would be disastrous for struggling homeowners.

Wrong price

But John Edwards, CEO of Residex, the property research company that compiled the data, said over-exuberance from buyers was also a big factor.

"It is clear that some people just paid the wrong price for a property and that happens a lot," Mr Edwards said.

"In every suburb in Sydney, there will be some properties that will have lost value because in every place in Australia there will some foolish person who paid too much for a property."

Aussie Homeloans boss John Symond, admits to advising first homebuyers to look for mortgagee sales in order to buy an affordable property.

"You've got to be smart in today's market," Mr Symond said.

"Prices are so high that many people will never own their own home, so you've got to be creative.

"There's a great opportunity to buy properties at distressed rates. If you can't afford to live in them right now you can rent them out. Then, over time, you should get some capital growth and a foot in the door."