QR 22nd, page-2

Went to enter the CC in my phone today.  UP till now did not pay much attention to the email.    First thing I noticed it was before my dinner usually it is during.   So it is at 9AM 1 hour before   ASX market opens.    At a time when none of the Markets that trade Lynas in world are open.   Usually it is at 10  or 11 so ASX market is open during CC.      Also it is usually on a Thursday now a Tuesday Usually there is over a weeks’ notice this  time 5 days and two of those are Saturday and Sunday.   US markets are closed Monday for a holiday.    This would cause some problems if they had CC  Monday AM,   Putting US investors at a 1.5 day disadvantage.   

An old rule of thumb says announcegood news early in week,  bad news late in week.  There were solid reasons for this when news was distributed with print media.  With internet not so true now.    Old habits die hard so many still follow it.   Moving it up is a plus or neutral  not a negative. 

 

Lynas has been very predictable withtheir CCs.   This is too many changes to be just random changes.    I have no idea if news will be good or bad.   I do agree with you we can expect a  more than the typical   CC. If  they ask for a trading pause that extends an hour or two after close of CC then news is really big.    I would take that as a negative. This is all just personal speculation with zero data to back it up, just experience that seldom do multiple changes happen without a reason.   

 

I would take the trading pause as anegative because on a percent basis I see more down side potential than upside.   I understand you will see it as upside for the opposite reasons.   We will know for sure soon.  

Let me know if this is a badassumption for how you would see it.    Mathematically   there is more upside than down, when I say more down side than UP I am thinking of different types of news and what the impact would be.     For example if the news is they have been cleared   to continue operations till September  then I see a pop of $0.40 to 0.60.   If they say they will have to shut down in February for an indeterminate amount of time I see a drop of $0.60 to more than a $.   Part of that is because I expect this Q will show an impact from price drops to revenue.  I know you strongly disagree with that and I am fine with it.      Last Q they sold 3896 tons for 105.6 M    Made 5222 tons     Even    5.5 possibly  6.5 K tons would not surprise me this Q  increasing revenue    7M possibly 15 M.   Trouble is some  of that material will come out of inventory.    With next and shutdown I would expect NdPR to be flat at about 1600 T so the increased tonnage will be Ce and La at USD ~ 2.00.    That helps cash,  the inventory depreciation impacts profits so profits  will not grow in line with Cash.   How much I do not know it all depends on what the value is in inventory.  Because it cost more to make Ce and La than it sells for it could be street price, I doubt it,  probably less. .

https://www.lynascorp.com/Shared%20Documents/Investors%20and%20media/Announcements%20and%20media/2018/181031%20Malaysian%20Regulatory%20Update%201864248.pdf