It's instructive that a decrease in UBS' forecast for spodumene prices in 2020 turns a $37mm profit into a $17mm loss. You can argue the toss over whether those price forecasts are reasonable, but it is pretty clear that the volatility of the SP6 price is a huge driver of volatility in the share price. Realised volatility is of the order of 50%, so that makes for a very wide range of outcomes on a 12-month (or longer) basis. How wide? Below $1 and above $4 are quite possible in the next twelve months. The SDV outcome would be a strong catalyst outside of sentiment and SP6 prices.
GXY Price at posting:
$1.98 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held