- the "-95% earnings" I'm hearing all over social media and reporting isn't correct. It's -95% NPAT with ~$600M tucked away for disaster recovery for the Royal Commission
- Divvies are no longer a surprise. We're at 4c as a result of the above.
- AMP has new management as a result of the RC, ex-CBA nontheless.
- Current underlying profit reduction due to RC. Unlikely to keep falling once the RC is over (subjective).
The current FA is (in theory) factored into the current share price.
As for the TA:
- Seeing very strong positive divergence on the daily. Meaning the selling which moves the price down is getting significantly weaker with each drop. Which translates to less selling pressure as time goes on.
- Oct 25th saw a burst of selling unlike anytime in AMP's history. 95% of the time this type of selling indicates seller exhaustion. Those with deep pockets who wanted out, are most likely already out at the end of last year. Again, causing less selling pressure down the track.
It won't be a surprise if we breakdown from this horizontal support @ $2.25. My expectation is that if it does break down it'll just create stronger positive divergence. We should see a much smaller sell down (both in terms of volume and price movement).
The TA does very little if the news on Monday night is terrible.
Equally, the financials on the 14th is much the same.
A sensible long term investor will wait for these two things to play out first.
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