Do AU investors realize how cheap this stock really is, page-3

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moremoneyplease

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01/02/19

02:50

Post #: 37292142
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Originally posted by moremoneyplease: ↑

do you actually know what a conversion is naga and what it does to ones share count.

All these knuckles keep saying how conversion makes or breaks a stock.

The reason my friend sea goes nowhere in AUS is because most instos see eric as just a deal maker who taps loyal shareholders everytime they get into trouble with no real operating or mangement experience.

Look at the shareholder returns last few years - not great. There no div. and oil very volatile of late. Lets say they have an ebitdax of 90 in 2018 and a evebitdax multiple of 6 = 540 enterprise value - minus 250 net debt and you get a calculated market cap of 290...hang on thats the market cap today - thats what the market is seeing today.

Now the future is what we like - say you get to 230 ebitdax and a multiple of 7 and net debt of 300 then you looking at market cap of 1.3bn or around 1.80 - 1.90 but there would be a discount there given terminal life of inventory so lets knock of 20% and we still around 1.50.

However market needs to be convinced 230 ebitdax is achievable and a multiple of 7 is reasonable - once you get that then my friend you going to c a nice little rise. Today on what we know one could say its undervalued based on potential and thats why we need to c oil stabilise and piut in a floor around 60$ and sea start to make the ebitdax numbers and the market in general to rerate oil stocks.

numbers above just not accurate but close enough for the example making - pls dont quote me net debt numbers and likely mutiples - thx they close enough

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I can see 50c tomorrow

only a matter of time before we get some large gains coming our way - as long as oil keeps retracing of course.

SEA Price at posting: 48.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Do AU investors realize how cheap this stock really is, page-3

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