Thanks for your thoughts, particularly for pointing out the cost not included in EBITDA
I'm juust going off their reports, but referring to the 'All In Costs' figure of $18.3k, this gives a margin of about $6k. I understand this would take into account all ongoing and corporate costs, and also development costs (which arguably might not be included as 'sustaining' costs because they potentially lead to increased production).
I don't include tax when calculating EV/EBITDA ratio - only if using a P/E ratio which would probably justify maybe a 12-15x rather than 10x. Anyhow, I don't think MLX would pay any tax due to all the losses? Didn't seem to have any tax last year anyhow.
So, adopting a 7.5k production (this is the low end of guidance) MLX's 50% share would be $21.7 million. 10x this would be $217 million EV.
Still seems ok at current prices. Note their EV is $210 million due to their cash and share holdings (but admittedly that cash pile is reducing..)
I suppose you have to have some belief that management will still turn Nifty around to justify the share price. Market is ver strongly betting that there won't be any turnaround - if there isn't, and they don't find a buyer, then i suppose the price will fall further
MLX Price at posting:
36.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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