geography and windimurra, page-9

Fatstocks,

1) Sellheim is a mud pit with a few colours. Alluvial gold operations and JORc are...well...terrible bedfellows. The idea here is to "bulk sample" the lot of it and hope you make a couple of million in the process. Pathetic MC material; its what prospectors, not businessmen do. Bird In Hand - well, more like a bird in the bush. MXR can carry on, and it is a nice little shoot, but its too small, in farmland, and can't be dewatered because dewatering will knacker the farmers. Too hard basket. Narndee, well, if MXR didn't have so many damn projects cooking maybe they'd have drilled the crapola out of it and found "the next Voisey's Bay" like everyone wants. So MXR's market cap is made up like a can of Pal; interesting chunks, too much gravy.

2) I dont own shares in MXR. I own shares in AXO. I do geologist work for a copper company exploring for VMS in the Pilbara - no prizes for guessing. I do NOT work for AXO or WVL; that is my full disclosure, take that to ASIC and see where you get. I will consider owning MXR when/if they decide to split off the gold (which I find worthless sub AUD$1000/oz) and produce as I said, a concept for a 'route to market'.

3) WVL is producing a couple of thousand tonnes of ferrovanadium. Maximus is talking of megattonnes of iron. FeV trades in the thousands of bucks a tonne; 17-25c per loaded km is meaningless on high value concentrates. Get with reality here. $25/t on a $6,000/t con is SFA; $25/t on a $75/t concentrate is murderous.

4) If MXR sets up a ferrovanadium operation, it won't matter how many Gt of 54% Fe it has; it'll be exporting Kt of ferrovanadium slag, etc. See above; a particularly pointless argument on your behalf. If you are in for the iron and they take the iron out of the equation, get out, dumbass.

5) WVL? Fast atart-up? Have you actually heard the history of Windimurra, or did you just blow in from FDL last week? Lulz.

6) WVL's market cap is $200M more because it is, well, nearly producing. Vanadium, at 8Kt per annum.

7) Windimurra and WVL are further East of Canegrass - why would MXR decide to truck a bulk commodity further away from the port to a value-adding ferrovanadium operation (listen to this bit) which is NOT set up for exporting bulk commodities. Here's the thing; WVL has minimal infrastructure for a bulk commodity operation; no slurry pipe, no railway, no stacker-reclaimer, etc. So what mythical synergies will they extract from MXR, who'll be shipping 10Mt per annum of raw magnetite concentrates, trough an operation set up for perhaps 50Kt per annum? Get with it.

8) Hey, its just a heory, and its good work on behalf of Big Kev to get his oppies exercised and avoid overhang, bad dilutions, and hideous bleeding. Good on him. But don't accept 1Bt turning into 3Bt on the same week AGO topped out at $4.47, GBG recovered to $1.37 and AXO topped off at $1.15, let alone BCI traipsing up to $1.71 and giving it a thrashing. GBG and AGO stretched reality even further with production profiles the Greek Gods would think hubris. Its part of the game, but you can still call them on it.

9) Well, bully for you.

10) This is still 360km. With no rails till Yalgoo - depending on whether the Midwest alliance refurbishes it. Its still around $2.1Bn in rail capex, or $61 per loaded tonne at 17c a tonne per kilometre freight rates. Murderous. And if they truck to Mt Magnet as well $73/t - basically the same cost as the 54% Fe is worth.

So do the math, Fatshlocks. The maths are against Canegrass even if it is AT Mt Magnet, if they truck it. If they don't, it's tough to imagine a railway capex for a measley 10Mtpa concentrate operation; Twiggy is suffering major headaches over his capex of $2.7Bn for a 45Mtpa operation. Do a $0.8Bn mill and $2.1Bn railway to Canegrass, and suck a good $12/t rail cost as well, and it dies in the buttocks severely.

I'm just saying that it is one thing to have a chunk of rock to dig up, and its an entirely different thing if its magnetite. Especially titanomagnetite.

And as far as the laughable allegation that the vanadium market isn't going to be flooded, you are only thinking of WVL as being an entrant into the supply side.

AXO wil produce, by default, with no recourse to vanadium prices collapsing, 59Kt of vanadium in its Balla Balla magnetite concentrate, half of which goes to Chengde and half to Rockcheck. Till 2015, when it turns into 100Kt of vanadium contained in 10Mt of 58% Fe 1% V concentrates.

Put that in your WVL crystal ball pipe and smoke it.

Then you have the South Africans expanding production; the Russians; the Finnish deposits which are better than Balla Balla; and uranium carnotite miners who'll produce ~3-6x the vanadium as a byproduct of each tonne of uranium production - 1200 to 2400t extra, again which is insensitive to vanadium prices.

The vanadium market knackered Windimurra before, and it'll probably knacker it again. I wouldn't want to see MXR get involved in it.