But I wouldn't take the EBITDA/share of just the base case (originally $0.02, now revised to $0.06) for further calculations.
I'd make a weighted average of several scenarios.
- If you neglect the "ideal case" for now and just take the average of your three scenarios "bad case", "average case" and "good case", giving each scenario a probability of 1/3, you get $0.11 EBITDA/share.
- If you include the "ideal case" with a probability of, say, 10% and the other 3 scenarios of 30%, you get almost $0.16 EBITDA/share.
That reflects that there is much more upside with MLX than downside. Just calculating the base case does not take that into account.
MLX Price at posting:
36.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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