4DS (ASX) Q1 2019 Target

Originally posted by jsbuser: ↑

Keep pumping it out Khoutam. You could fertilise a garden with it. I have no fight with 4DS, depending on progress I will be an investor here. Just waiting for a little more confirmation on the latest results from the wafer (ie working packaged chips to be precise)

What I dont like is when investors are spun a story based on plainly incorrect facts. There is a lot of trust here about what 4DS have to do. It caused immense pain for holders when the first wafer failed. Apparently it was at the time a given it would work and then you whip up a quick fab recipe and Western Digital hands over the cash. This expectation when not realised was very painful for everyone. However, anybody with a modicum of knowledge of the semiconductor market knows there is a very specific set of activities to go through that you just cant escape.

That you keep preaching off the marketing brochure is plainly poor form when experience is now showing everyone that the process is plainly harder than reading theory as fact.

So to your statements on WBT.

1. Filamentary vs Non-Filamentary. This is currently a theoretical advantage. If the technical parameters needed to create a working, high yielding product at a competitive cost are hard to get right, then filamentary or non-filamentary wont matter a cracker. You also dont mention there are other Non-filamentary reram technologies out there besides 4DS such as Correlated-Electron RAM (CeRAM) from Symetrix Corp that have made meagre progress in terms of market share despite this obvious advantage. Perhaps it sells better on paper than in the market yet. From experience, in any evaluation, its usually not one single feature that slam dunks a decision for one particular product or another but the totality of capabilities put together. That aside, I am keenly waiting to see if this pans out technically. We should know soon.

2. You keep saying WBT is "Lab Technology". This comes from the fact that you think that 200mm wafer production is not commercial when its just a matter of scale. There are plenty of 200mm commercial fabs out there and they have trouble keeping up with demand. Its not a "Concept Only", there are fully packaged 40nm 1MB WBT arrays with various partners. 300mm scale wafer is just a scale matter.

3. Fab Qualification Q4 2020. This is a convenient fiction. There is a process of optimisation to go through. 4DS now has working chips to start on that process. All chips have to do this once off first wafer and 4DS is not special in this regard, in fact the first wafer did not even work.
4DS dont have a commercial fab qualification either. They have a first wafer off commercial fab equipment that works. The IMEC equipment is commercial fab equipment in a development lab. The Leti equipment used to produce the WBT wafers is also commercial fab equipment in a development lab. You've played this up way too far. Neither are producing in commercial fabs at production yields yet.

4. WBT, no industry partner. This is very true. But some of us feel this is a good thing right now. They are not trying to design and produce a chip for a single commercial partner. They are working to a more general case. Perhaps the decision to chase the "cloud storage market" is what the partner wants, since that is their business focus. Not having an industry partner does not seem to have impeded progress to date, which is arguably faster than 4DS's progress to date. You definitely need a great development partner and 4DS have that in IMEC and WBT have that in CEA-Leti. This is where the progress comes from, not having a business sitting over the top going "we there yet, we there yet". Tell me one thing having Western Digital on board has done for 4DS progress over the last few years?

Expand

I stopped reading when you said first wafer failed.

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Last 8.4¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $149.8M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
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