I have done some a little more research, alb is vuneralbe to takeover to some extent. I believe there would be too many competing intersts to takeover alb at this point of development.
Firstly you have a joint venture with 3 parties, bhp, zfx, and to some exent their off take parnter jinchuan, if xstrat is also intersted that leaves up to 5 interested parties, this would create too much interest for a value for money takeover at this stage. The bidding war would create a fully valued company and expose a takeover company to downside if or when metal prices fall.
I do not believe the top 20 shareholders who own 70% of the company are stupid enough to let go of a potential monster asset. Futher more if they are, I believe I could achieve $1 billion finance to take this over myself. Those stupid analysts who believe that xtrata can take this over for $750 million are fools.
Most of the other assets are jv so there is limmited upside for a company like xtrata the likes to own the lot, I think that would rule xtrata out as a bidder. There would be more upside for zfx who is in jv with the zinc which has a likely chance of being a $28billion deposit if their expectations come true. Alb will end up with 30%. If zfx gained control of that 30% would pay for a takeover 4 times over.
Futher more if this resource can be trippled, and jinchuann does put a smelter in and go 50% jv with alb, that would be game set match for ALB.
I predict if jinchaun and alb go jv with a smelter and zfx zinc jv comes off, Alb would end up with a market cap of $3.7 billion or $23.12 per share and some.
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