Today's announcement effectively gives a green light to proceed with mezzanine finance approval.
Probably the most important announcement since the KfW finance was approved.
Yes the market was looking for more, but another big risk box has been ticked.
Just need more wait time again....
In mid December I spoke to the company. Their aim was to decide on the final equity component by the end of Q1. Nothing definite, just an internal best estimate time frame to work towards.
As we know they are not in control of many of the variables.
Delays to the mezz due diligence and now the lender internal steps to approval may extend this a few more weeks.
I'm surprised if the updated HPA market report is only being commissioned now.
The announcement on 10/10/2018 stated CRU Consulting was appointed as HPA market due diligence consultant. I had assumed that meant a new market analysis report would be produced in parallel to the the final stages of the technical due diligence.
Now it's unclear when the trigger was pulled. If several weeks ago, final mezz approval may only be 4-6 weeks away. If only now then add another 4 weeks.
Either way it is highly likely to be very positive based on the report published last year and on recent statements about the HPA market from the company and it's competitors.
Inter-creditor discussions and modelling have been ongoing for sometime (not just starting now). KfW bank are very comfortable with the mezz lender and proposed level of debt.
Fully agree with everything 42trader posted. I think we will be surprised how quickly the equity component is finalised once the mezz is approved.
In the interim we can look forward to seeing real progress being made onsite as stage 1 construction ramps up.
I'm one of the 1% who does not think we will require another raise prior to mezz being finalised.
Seems like many people think it's almost a foregone conclusion - but based on what?
The November letter from Luke Atkins clearly stated, Any decision on equity participation will come after mezzanine debt is finalised.
This statement was repeated again in the quarterly activities report on the 31/01/2019.
Why would they suddenly break this commitment to shareholders?
What has changed? Nothing.
They are funded probably until the end of Q2.How much would they raise and for what purpose?
Can't see it happening imo.
They want to announce mezz approval and give the market a chance to re-rate the company.
The board and management are just as unhappy with the SP performance as the rest of us.
Maybe then if they need a million or two to tide them over, a small placement could be made prior to the final equity package announcement.
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