Why I am participating in the SPP, page-63

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friendlydwarves

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19/02/19

22:50

Post #: 37491809
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Originally posted by friendlydwarves: ↑

LOLZ at some of the enthusiasm here. I suspect many haven't actually thought this through, or previously seen an SPP done this way.

Some things to consider.

The final price is tied to a VWAP that you can't calculate until your money is in.

The final price is tied to a VWAP that can easily be manipulated. AVZ averages maybe $250k of trading a day.

The final price is tied to a VWAP that many would benefit from manipulating. Is it worth torching say 20% of that x 5 days pushing the sp up by 20% over the VWAP calc period? That would come at a cost of $250k but decrease dilution by an equivalent $2m. So, some would benefit hugely from such manipulation.

There are 10k shs in AVZ. If all apply, that's $150m. The SPP is capped at <7% of that. Not everyone will apply, but you're not going to get anywhere near your full $15k worth.

Invariably on issue day for SPPs structured like this, there is a big dump. So even if the day before, you are looking at a 20% gain, that is all but guaranteed to largely disappear on issue day.

GLTAH (and that includes me) but go into this with your eyes open, not blinkered.

FD

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as I was saying...

seriously, has there ever been a more blatant choice of timing of an announcement ?

FD downgrades to hold, because this stinks of manipulation. And insider manipulation, at that.

AVZ Price at posting: 5.3¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
3 Upvote

1 Great analysis

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