Based on the floor space of SY5 it appears to be a 60MW facility. SY4 was half the size at roughly 30MW.
Based on the date of the below article and the timing of the new SY5 site, i would suggest NXT is contracting at a similar rate to Equinix. The phase 2 expansion of SY4 was 15MW. Which has taken circa 2 years for Equinix to achieve. NXT has pre sold 14MW in the space of 12 months.
I am not concerned about S2 getting filled up. in the 14th Nov 2018 announcement NXT advised the phase 3 deployment of 8MW would be bought forward that would align to a future 8MW contract. S2 should be sold out in another 18 months and bill over the subsequent 24 months .
Craig S. and other datacentre CEO's such as Robin K. from AirTrunk have always said that build out's mirror actual demand.
If we take AWS revenue as a proxy for datacentre growth, from 2014 to 2018 the datacentre industry has grown by 500% which is circa 50% CAGR. I choose AWS as they make a large portion of the marketshare and their growth is representative of average hyperscale public cloud growth.
Alternatively if we take Goldman Sachs (Nov 2018 report) estimated CAGR for NXT at 43% and using Next DC's current 40MW we should expect 167MW billing in 4 years time or an additional 127 MW billing in 4 years.This would be inline with NXT's current facility build out, S2 (30MW), M2 (40MW), B2 (12MW) and P1 (3MW) should be full by then and small portions of P2 (10MW) S3 (15MW) and M3 (15MW) billing to make the 127MW value.
What is more of a concern for me is the execution of the S2 build out ensuring it is completed on time. Any delays means deferment of revenue.
NXT Price at posting:
$7.08 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.
(20min delay)