Hello Parma,
This is interesting is it not ?
Obviously Saragian’s $2.32 level - or possibly $872M market cap level- is a critical one..
And we know now that the volume of shares Wellington had as of yesterday’s announcement ;...
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Less today’s;...
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.....means those ‘wot lurk beneath’ our 5% plimsol line can do so with quantities of around 18,346,765 shares..
......and we know anyone trying to take over the company by amassing a holding on market has a way to go.
Beyond this we know those who shew their hand so far as NRW journeyed upwards along the recovery road are CBA, IFM investors, Dimensional Entities, Paradice, Wellington and Vinva
... and were there are others? Euroz?
And we know (because a manager there told me) those at Wilson Asset Management thought they might have left “a bit too early”
...and that OC Funds is somewhere under that 18.3 million mark ..and maybe closer to it than they were through recent buying either in the lead up to or aftermath of the December 19 shorting attack (or during )
..hmmmm
And we know that as of last (2018) Annual Report there were 224 shareholders holding 85.69% of the company
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Whereas in price comparison year, 2011, there were only 71 holders who owned 90.03% of the company .
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The reason I am being OCD about 2011 is that whatever was going on then directly set NRW up to soar from under $3.00 to over $4.00 a share in 2012 (in an unsustainable ‘pump’ ?) and then rapidly plummet .
EVERY similarity and difference between then and now is of keen interest to me and so far reinforces my belief in the sustainability of current prices and potential for higher ones.
- an idea which may not supported by Dimensionsal or Wellington who have been selling into recent highs ?
yesterday pb said : “I doubt $2.30 is a strong 'sell' point for these guys, maybe fair value at worst. Possibly they are doing some portfolio management given their position has doubled in value in the last year.. I'm biased because I think it's a buy here - they may be looking at it differently.”
I agree with him!
Glass half empty perspective : ‘they’ say when all the brokers say “buy” it’s time to say “bye”
....and nobody has told me about NWH yet at a barbecue..... although the gas cylinder in the park still isn’t working so the one I was going to go to was cancelled ....
- anyway just some miscellaneous thoughts
(20min delay)