Your posts have certainly generated interest!We’ve had a lot of contact from shareholders who are fired up and firmly of the view that a Board acting in their best interests would absolutely, definitely and without question have done the Century deal all things considered (rather than being primarily concerned with any potential personal environmental liability consequences as they seem to have been).
They have pointed out many financial implications including things like: if AML owned the Century mill the saving in CAPEX would be a minimum of $40m per year in amortisation which at 2m ton per year is $20/t. This equates to about 8 cents per share per year profit. Given a PE of 6 this then adds $0.48 to the value of the shares (this is in addition to all the other assets that the Century deal would have brought).
In addition, even if you totally discount the Century tailings and, instead, process 2mt/year of Walford ore that leaves excess capacity at the Century mill of about 5mt/year. That extra capacity could be used to toll mill outside ore. If you make $20/t on the outside ore that adds another $140m per year in profit equivalent to about 28 cents per share. Again on a PE of 6 this equates to an additional $1.68 per share.
Some of these shareholders' calculations then foresee an AML SP (with Century) of $3 - $4!
Even if we are being really conservative, we still easily see $1+ per share. Imagine having the AML resource and the Century infrastructure as a takeover proposition?
Anyway, as previously stated, there is likely to be further SH action on this front coming up but in the meantime we can nevertheless agree that, even despite this, there is still excellent potential.
You seem to agree that one of the things necessary to unlocking this potential is increased awareness.In addition, we believe there are 2 important issues which requite timely clarification to increase investment potential.
They both involve roasting.
The first is the cobalt recovery rate where the reporting to date leaves a lot to be desired.
The quarterly dated July 31, 2018 reported that "a 373kg sample had recently been airfreighted (?) to Frankfurt for pilot plant roasting testwork".
Then the latest presentation (Feb 27), now 7 months later, reports that the pilot plant roast is still in progress in Frankfurt ....... seriously?
The other issue which we are informed is a major stumbling block for some ‘big-end’ investors is what to do with the sulphuric acid?
Again, reporting to date just doesn’t cut it.
In June 2017, there was an interesting ASX ann about the opportunity to combine the Sulphuric Acid with Phosphate to produce much in demand, fertiliser, which would generate an additional $385m/yr (as detailed in this ann).
We have been seeking an update to this unsuccessfully now for the last 20 months (and it is common knowledge that there is abundant and cheap phosphate near to WC).
Instead, on Aug 3, 2018 there was an ann about an MOU to export the acid “to offshore markets”.
Now, after doing a bit more checking, this seems like total B.S. given the cost of shipping a dangerous product like sulphuric acid?
The latest Feb 27 presentation (thanks for the heads up Vector) just shows a schematic of it being loaded onto a tanker which, again, simply won’t cut it with big end investors?....
Perhaps, you have a different take on it but we believe the 'what to do with the acid' is a big issue?
AML Price at posting:
28.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)