Ann: Veris 1H FY19 Results Presentation, page-21

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SimonGr

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14/03/19

09:32

Post #: 37756311
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Originally posted by cyclerider: ↑

A great post. Agree with many of the sentiments.
Major over-arching issues for me are that
1) business momentum is incredibly poor and deteriorated in Q2 even further (surveying EBITDA margin of only 3%!! and this was after they realised they had issues)
2) the business is a people business and as a result business momentum takes on added significance;
3) this issue is compounded by it being a roll up story where the most important people in the business have likely cashed out or wished they did and compounding all of these points is
4) the balance sheet is incredibly stressed.
The combination of these attributes are particularly precarious, especially when the banks are already effectively running things. I hope this doesn't end up like many other roll ups which gorged on excessive debt or fell afoul of "contingent" liabilities (such as deferred consideration for recent acquisitions lIke VRS has). There is decent upside if things play out favourably, however given VRS' ability to implode during both an infrastructure and property boom (which is rolling over), the toxic cocktail of debt, very weak momentum and poor financial management makes a "cheap" valuation a likely value trap.
These opportunities are mostly better revisited once there is some sign of stabilisation and banks aren't in charge. You may miss the first 20% but you will also miss the negative 100% if things don't play out as you hope. Agree it is worth watching though.

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Thanks - some food for thought.

VRS Price at posting: 6.8¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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