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Ann: Extension of SPP CLosing Date, page-128

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21/03/19

18:10

Post #: 37843505
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Originally posted by kojak78: ↑

I think Troy management miscalculated the SPP somewhat. In some sense it was a "failure" in some sense a success.

A SPP is directed at the NUMBER of shareholders, completely disregarding the size of each shareholders stake.

Troy has a large number of shareholders (7000). Most of them bought at way higher prices, let's say $1.50 or so. The shareholders with larger stakes are the ones buying or adding over the last 1-3 years. Maybe 1500?

The failure of management was.. they might work as an excellent team now (as can be proven by the successful fundamental developments recently) and most if not all of them are not responsible for the crash in the share price going on since well before Karouni. But if you try to tap old shareholders you cannot reject responsibility for the time frame since they bought their shares. So that's why it makes sense - in hindsight - that many or most shareholders from the old days did not participate in the SPP. It really is a pity as I think there was a very good chance to make a good profit for them. Well, we will see 6 or 12 months down the road.

Troy had to reject a lot of applications due to shareholders coming from overseas. I guess applications for the SPP have been way higher than $2m. Considering there are 1500 shareholders with stakes of a meaningful size that would mean at $10000 average take-up there have been 200 shareholders who decided to take part in the SPP. 200 from 1500 is 13%. Considering the share price flirted with the issue price that is not too bad. So management seems to have support from current shareholders.

And this is a good sign. As we do not have information how production is going there might be the chance to pay back the Investec loan end of quarter. Troy will make sure to maximize the cashflow, that means getting as many ounces out of the plant as possible and that means a gold pour as late as possible. The gold price received might be higher than we expect as the gold price end of quarter will be important. It is now $1320 and could be even higher in 10-14 days. IF the payment is made it would be a huge boost to the share price. I really do not think they would have trouble to do a placement of the shortfall in that case.

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Investec loan is scheduled to be paid off end of the month, nothing to suggest it will not happen and with less than two weeks to go it's not looking like they are renegotiating the loan repayment. But possible

As try are now free of the hedge contracts they can finally take advantage of the higher POG

TRY Price at posting: 11.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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