Iron ore price, page-11123

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-20/vale-mine-ruling-has-analysts-weighing-iron-ore-market-impact

Santander, Gustavo Allevato

• Iron ore production in Brucutu mine could resume soon.
  • Restart of capacity is expected to have a net positive effect on Vale’s cash generation.
• Santander doesn’t expect a significant correction in iron ore prices from current levels, as Vale will still produce less this year and competitors aren’t able to make up for the lost production.

Bradesco BBI, Thiago Lofiego

• Positive development for Vale.
• However, it’s still uncertain if the company can regain the provisional operating license under which it operated the Laranjeiras dam or if it will have to restart a licensing process with the Minas Gerais state environmental agency in order to be allowed to operate it.
  • In this case, Brucutu mine would be unlikely to restart in 2019.
• Bradesco BBI sees Vale’s 2019 iron ore shipments totaling 350 million tons.
  • Faster-than-expected resumption of Brucutu could bring upside to the estimate.
• Outperform recommendation maintained.

Goldman Sachs, Thiago Ojea

• Brucutu restart should be quick once its license is returned.
• Vale’s production is expected to reach 370 million tons in 2019.
• Goldman’s global commodities team sees iron ore prices averaging $73/t in 2019.
• Neutral recommendation maintained.

Credit Suisse, Caio Ribeiro

• Market wasn’t expecting the mine’s resumption to be as fast, and potential restart represents a relevant de-risking factor.
• Maintains outperform rating.
• Volatility should increase, but valuation is attractive.

BMO, Edward Sterck

• Restart of Brucutu is now expected to take place in the second quarter of the year.
  • This adds 16Mt iron ore production back into the forecasts, increasing Ebitda by 3%.
• Near-term outlook for Vale remains uncertain.
  • Market perform rating maintained.
• “Vale remains embroiled in regulatory investigations post the Brumadinho dam failure. However it stands to gain from higher iron ore prices leaving an uncertain balance to the outlook.”

Jefferies, Christopher LaFemina

• Even if Brucutu comes back on line, iron ore supply risk in Brazil remains high.
• There is some risk of short-term strength in Vale’s shares and potential weakness in the others if the mine does indeed restart.
• Models weren’t adjusted for this news as the ultimate outcome is still uncertain.