sa power shortage to go on for years, page-6

0133 GMT [Dow Jones] Citigroup forecasts pullback in hard coking coal to $200/ton in Japan FY 2009, $80 for thermal. But recent events, continued lack of supply response poses upside risk to estimates. China's power supplies remain acutely tight. Coal shortages this week shut down about 7 gigawatt, power stations operating on thin margins depressing domestic coal prices which lag seaborne prices. Domestic coal prices must rise to stimulate further production, imports. Yet utilities can't support high coal prices unless tariffs rise, unhelpful to China's inflation problem. Thermal coal stocks critically low. China could return to full export ban on further tightening. Australia has committed substantial mine, port and rail expansions but recent delays to Dalrymple Bay Port expansion support view of little growth in exports until 2010.(EFB)