The net cashflow of a business that has a small number of shipments a year, due to higher value, lower volume, such as copper and tin, especially from Hedland is going to be very lumpy. If you look at the movements from the port, you will see that large iron ore ships come and go almost daily.
Smoothing cashflow on the shipment front.
The short term statutory reports for MLX will show wild fluctuations in net cashflow, depending on when the small number of shipments arrive at the smelter.
The $A value of copper a.t.m. is about $9,000 and tin $30,500. Both are on a rising trend since a bottom early after New Year. Yes, transport and smelter margin come out of that. I has been about 3 months since the last shipment so it looks like there will be something like net copper 4000 tons in the shed? But OK, 3500 may be a reasonable guess too, if there has been any road problems from Veronica's visit. Don't know of any, but I'm not there.
Lets say you are in a job, you have a family to support and bills to pay. But your boss pays you when he gets paid, which may vary. Say approximately every 3 months but sometimes only once in six months. Could have rather a lack of cash at times, you reckon? Feast or famine.
But yes, production at Nifty has not met planned targets at all after high hopes in this Qtr. Electric failure, yes, but no stockpiles to process? Is it because equipment is being moved to new areas? Digging to do to get there? Likely. I would like to know more. But in the event of a windup or takeover those mined but unprocessed and mined processed and at port or at sea stocks would be looked at as important assets in any valuation.
Don't I know it. I worked for a major receivership specialist chartered firm for a while. Its the first thing we looked for, what can be realised for cash reasonably quickly? Majority got into trouble because of debtors not paying, for whatever reason. You also need a buyer. For commodities that is rarely a problem. Global markets. Copper and tin do not rot or spoil. Banks first want their cut and the devil take the hindmost. We worked for banks. Only two creditors mattered in honesty, the bank and us first and foremost. Fees.
But what is one thing I like with MLX, especially? There is no f-ng bank owed $XX million. I know those sharks. They can turn on you in an instant. No debt mate. You can ride some pretty bad storms if you don't owe anybody. Staff, yes, entitlements to some degree, but if Nifty can't still get over the hurdles in the short term can just put it into care and maintenance and wait for higher copper prices, while continuing to prove up the unmined resource, which is growing fast. Down dip looking good, but yes, it will need ventilation and that wont come cheap. Check Santa Barbara for eg. But they have to go down 2km. Don't forget this is one of the biggest underground copper mines started in the world in the last decade. You can walk away from your farm in a drought for a while if you don't owe the bank. MLX if they cant get that production up soon might be best to do this. SP would probably rise.
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